The long reach of effective teaching: we found evidence-informed instruction counters geographical barriers

Understanding the factors that influence students’ intentions is therefore essential for supporting young people to meet their potential.

Our recently published study set out to map the educational plans of Year 10 students in rural, regional and city areas. We also looked at the teaching students experienced in Year 9, asking whether stronger support was associated with particular plans, and whether some plans were more closely tied to actually completing school.

Our findings revealed distinct patterns in students’ future plans across the three locations. They also showed that effective teaching in Year 9 was tied to plans oriented more towards further study – and that these plans, in turn, were related to a greater likelihood of completing school.

What did the study examine?

The study followed 40,815 students across New South Wales (NSW) government schools, using their responses to the department’s annual student survey when they were in Year 9 and again in Year 10. In our sample, 2,526 students lived in rural areas, 6,771 in regional areas, and 31,518 in city areas.

In Year 10, students reported on three types of educational plans:

• School completion plans – their intention to complete Year 12.
• University plans – their intention to pursue university study.
• Vocational Education and Training (VET) plans – their intention to attend VET or TAFE.

We examined how these plans combined for different students. For instance, some students may intend to complete school and go to university, without plans to pursue VET pathways. Others may intend to finish school and pursue VET pathways, with limited interest in university. Additional combinations are also possible.

Students’ experiences of effective teaching in Year 9 were assessed using their reports of evidence-informed instructional support, emotional support, and classroom management.

For school completion in Year 12, this was measured by whether students successfully attained the Higher School Certificate (HSC).

What did the study find?

Five distinct combinations of plans emerged, each shared by a sizeable proportion of students.

Three of these combinations – together accounting for more than two-thirds of the sample – described young people with firm intentions to complete school who differed mainly in the pathway they hoped to follow afterwards:

• Complete School + University Plans: The largest group of students (40 per cent rural/regional, 57 per cent city students) intended to complete school and go on to university, with weaker interest in VET pathways.
• Complete School + TAFE Plans: 8 per cent of students in all locations intended to finish school and pursue VET pathways, but had lower intentions to go to university.
• Complete School + Undecided Plans: Around 20 per cent of students in all locations planned to finish school, but held moderate intentions for both university and VET pathways, suggesting they were unclear about their preferred pathway.

The remaining two groups were characterised by less certainty regarding school completion:

• Uncertainty About Completing School + VET Plans: Some students (17 per cent rural/regional, 10 per cent city students) were unsure whether they would finish school or head to university, but were drawn to VET.
• Not Planning on Completing School + VET Plans: Another group (12 per cent rural/regional, 7 per cent city students) had no firm plans for school completion or university, though VET held some appeal.

Reports of stronger teaching in Year 9 went hand in hand with membership in one of the three “Complete School” combinations, rather than in the two less certain ones.

This points to effective teaching practices earlier in secondary school as a meaningful influence on whether young people stay on and finish.

These plans also aligned with what happened next: students in the three “Complete School” combinations went on to attain the HSC at significantly higher rates than those in the two less certain combinations. What young people intended in Year 10 was closely bound up with whether they completed school two years later.

While the five combinations were largely consistent across rural, regional, and city areas, the proportion of students within each group varied in some cases. This was most evident for the “Complete School + University Plans” combination, which was much more prevalent in city areas than in rural and regional areas.

In part, this is likely because different geographical contexts present distinct opportunities and challenges that can shape educational planning.

For instance, although rural and regional communities often provide strong family and community networks that support students’ schooling experiences, students in these areas may face additional barriers.

Smaller schools and staffing constraints often restrict the range of subjects available, and distance from education providers, training organisations and workplaces can add financial and personal costs associated with accessing vocational education, work experience or tertiary institutions.

Encouragingly, our results suggest that effective teaching may be one way to support future plans and school completion no matter where students live.

What do the findings mean for schools?

Taken together, the findings underline that effective teaching matters for students – and also show the long reach of effective teaching.

Evidence-informed strategies teachers can use to provide support include the following:

• Make learning relevant: Draw out how learning connects to students’ lives and futures, and design tasks that feel meaningful and engaging. This is especially important in rural and regional settings where students may perceive aspects of the curriculum as having limited relevance to local contexts and employment pathways.

• Show students what success looks like: Spell out learning goals, sequence lessons logically, and explain tasks step by step, so students know what they are working towards and can see themselves making progress.

• Support and hold high expectations for all students: Encourage every student to aim high with goals that stay within reach, and take students’ own perspectives into account along the way.

• Engage students in behaviour norms and expectations: Explain the purpose of behavioural expectations to support shared understanding.

• Create orderly and predictable classrooms: Establish clear routines and apply them consistently, so the classroom stays calm and predictable, and students can settle into learning.

For a closer look at what these findings mean for regional, rural and remote schools specifically, see the NSW Centre for Education Statistics and Evaluation companion report on the same study.

Beyond the classroom, schools also have a role in broadening students’ awareness of the options open to them after they leave. An open question for future work is how tailored careers guidance might best support each of these pathways.

Together, our findings highlight the value of fostering effective teaching in secondary school, as it can shape students’ plans.

Investing in that teaching across all communities is one concrete way to help more young people reach the educational futures they are working towards.