Led by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) the research found half of children and adolescents nationally will be obese (2.2 million) or overweight (1.6 million) within the next 25 years.
The forecast equates to 1.8 million children aged 5-14 years and two million aged 15–24 years with one in three facing obesity.
Australian children and adolescents have experienced some of the fastest transitions to obesity in the world. Girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight, the study reported.
Researcher and expert in adolescent nutrition at MCRI, Dr Jessica Kerr, says if immediate five-year action plans are not developed, the future is looking bleak for the nation’s youth.
“Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic,” Kerr says.
“Prevention is key as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.
“This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high Body Mass Index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenges, will negatively impact our children and adolescent now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.”
Despite the study’s findings indicating major societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, its results also provide a level of optimism that the trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030.
The study, released on World Obesity Day (Tuesday March 4), used an established forecast model alongside risk factor data including BMI from 204 countries and territories.
It found a third of children and adolescents worldwide are forecasted to be overweight (385 million) or obese (360 million) by 2050.
The obesity rate for those between 5-24 years old tripled from 1990 to 2021, rising by 244 per cent to 174 million. As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese.
The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are forecast to have the highest prevalence while China, Egypt, India and the US will have the greatest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.
Globally, there will be more boys, 5-14 years, with obesity than being overweight by 2050.
“Without urgent policy reform, the transition to obesity will be particularly rapid in north Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and in the Caribbean, where the rise is concurrent with high population numbers and limited resources,” Kerr says.
“Many regions have historically had to focus on preventing undernutrition and stunting in children.
“To prevent a public health emergency from this newer threat, an immediate imperative should be creating national surveillance surveys of obesity in children and adolescents in every country.”
Kerr says older adolescent girls, over the age of 15, entering their reproductive years are a priority population for intervention.
“Adolescent girls who are obese are a main focus if we are to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity, chronic conditions and the dire financial and societal costs across future generations,” she says.
“With this age group increasingly being out of school and cared for by adult services, we need to focus interventions at the community and commercial level.”
MCRI Professor Susan Sawyer says governments needed to invest in multicomponent strategies that reduce obesity drivers, across food and drink, activity, lifestyle and the built environment.
“While people and families can work to balance their physical activity, diet and sleep, everything in our environments works to counteract these efforts,” she says.
Given this huge global shift in children’s and adolescents’ weight, Sawyer says simply blaming people for their choices is no longer acceptable.
“We require governments to step up by addressing regulatory interventions including taxing sugar sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at children and young people and funding healthy meals in primary and secondary schools,” she says.
“We also need to consider the benefits of wider policies such as overhauling urban planning to encourage active lifestyles.”
