The figures provided to RNZ paint a grim picture of things to come, with the reading, writing and maths exams to be introduced this year, or phased in over two years if needed.

Some principals, such as Ragne Maxwell of Porirua College, say the nature of the test being online means we may not be getting a true measure of some students’ abilities.

“I think when you come down to doing an online, high stakes, one-off assessment, you are not necessarily measuring actual literacy and numeracy capacity.

“You’re measuring how the kid is on that day, how well they perform on computers, how they handle stress,” she told RNZ.

“Where the method of assessment becomes a barrier, in and of itself, repeating that experience is not going to change the nature of the barrier,” she added.

However Associate Professor Jenny Poskitt, an expert in assessment for learning at Massey University, says the test is about as good as they come.

“Whilst no test is ever perfect – it’s only ever a sample of student behaviour and knowledge, and there’s likely to be a need for a few refinements – but I think the test is pretty good,” she tells EducationHQ.

“The tests have been well developed by our experts in the educational agencies who are well versed in test construction. And they have been piloted in schools

“They’ve connected it well to the NCEA standards and to the curriculum. They’ve also had input from experts in literacy and numeracy nationally and internationally,” she adds.

For Poskitt, there are a number of factors at play which have led to disappointing results for many disadvantaged students.

Firstly, Poskitt admits, technology might be part of the problem.

She says internet instability and access, particularly in rural areas, may be impacting some students.

“It could also be student familiarity or [lack thereof] with the digital format of the test,” she says.

“More likely, it could be something to do with the school infrastructure, in terms of availability of sufficient devices.”

And then there are several issues, Poskitt believes, associated with the ‘long tail’ of Covid.

With significant periods of time spent in lock down, in a home learning environment, some students’ virtual classrooms were less than ideal.

“We’re aware that, particularly for students from neighbourhoods where there’s less income, that they had to share devices, they’ve only had access to one phone amongst several students, or a laptop that a parent needed for work and it wasn’t always available.

“And so that limited their access to schoolwork and homework,” Poskitt says.

She also believes the well-intentioned focus on wellbeing during the pandemic had unintended consequences for some.

“Some students viewed it as a chance to just ease off a bit, maybe have a bit of a holiday, engage in a bit of paid work, or not have to put the same effort in.

“So for some of them, there’s been a wee bit of loss of motivation, or perhaps they got into poorer work habits,” she says.

“We did have, in New Zealand, some significant attendance declines particularly 2020 through 2022,” she adds.

“So of course, if they’re not at school, it is harder to learn.”

Finally in terms of COVID, the disruption caused by teachers falling ill and relief teachers needing to step in, made for additional loss of learning opportunities.

It’s no secret that New Zealand is facing a teacher shortage, and Poskitt feels this too, is taking its toll on student performance.

“In some cases, schools have had to put in a teacher who they wouldn’t necessarily put into classrooms if they had more choice.

“The teacher’s qualified, don’t get me wrong, but their expertise may not be in literacy or numeracy.”

And the increased need for remedial teaching in literacy and numeracy means teachers have their work cut out for them.

“That requires teachers to be able to diagnose where the gaps are and the misunderstandings,” Poskitt says.

“Some teachers may not have that depth and breadth of the understanding of the curriculum. 

“They also might need a greater breadth of strategies to clarify and deepen learning.”

“And then finally related to that are assessment skills,” Poskitt adds.

“The capacity to diagnose where the patterns are of errors or misunderstandings for students. 

“Then framing it in ways of feedback that is accessible for students to understand, that empowers them to want to learn and gives them connection to resources or strategies to help them address those gaps.”

It’s fair to say, there’s a lot going on behind the most recent lot of NCEA test scores.

According to Poskitt, they really signify the need for more resourcing in schools, particularly for professional learning.

If these underlying issues can be addressed, Poskitt feels the new NCEA tests can help students and teachers navigate what’s really important in literacy and mathematics.  

“There has been a broadening complexity of what’s important in literacy and mathematics,” she says. 

“These tests help people be clearer about what’s really important for moving on to the next stage and ensuring that students, when they leave school, will go on to university or go on to other tertiary education, with the essential foundational skills and knowledge they need for further success.”